The ETH merge is expected to take place, sometime between the 10th and 20th of September
I wrote some Dune queries to try to estimate the distribution of possible merge dates based on remaining difficulty to TTD and cumulative daily difficulties over the past year.
It is extremely interesting that there seems to be a significant right tail to this distribution. The chances of the merge not happening on the 15th as expected are considerable and it might trigger a sell-off.